Monday, October 30, 2006

Analysis

Thanks to all those that posted with their ideas on this hand. My thoughts on the pre flop betting is pretty standard, I make a 4x BB raise after one limper, if there was 2 limpers I would of raised it up to $10-12. I get called by a player on my left and the original limper. This puts the pot at $27 and I make a standard 1/2 pot size continuation bet (one that has taken down most flops at this table) and get raised by the limper. At this point I don't really know where I'm at. I would make this (his) play against a preflop raiser with TPTK, even 99 if I thought he had a missed AK to see if I could take the pot down. My decision to reraise him was to find out if he was making a play or had a hand. I'm still getting used to Full Tilt so my raise wasn't high enough to give me perfect information, but when he flat called my raise I instantly put him on a monster, if he reraised me at this point I was done with the hand as well. My read on this guy was a fairly solid player who was comfortable at these limits because he was rebuying up to $200 whenever he dropped below his buy in. That alone made me think he is a solid player even if I didn't see any hands showdown by him.

He checks to be on the turn, its an easy check for him since I have been an aggressor and obviously like my hand enough to reraise him on the flop. This also looks like he is strong and wants me to bet at him so he can check raise. Its an easy check behind for me to see if I can catch my Queen on the river. He fires out a $100 on the river into a $139 pot. After reconstructing the hand I just couldn't put him on a hand that I could beat. I was behind 33, 77, 1010, 10J, 89, 910, and other less likely hands of JJ or 88. I would play many of those hands for a limp and call a raise especially after someone already called my raise by the time it got back to him. The $100 bet screamed "I am trying to make it look like I'm bluffing, call me with TPTK or your obvious over pair!!". I hope I didn't get bluffed out of a pot, I think he would make that play as a bluff 20% of the time, which is not a big enough percentage to make that call profitable in the longrun.

Was I wrong in my reasoning, and to make the reraise on the flop to see if I was ahead? Did my bet actually help with my read or would I of found out where I was at even If I just called his check raise on the flop and waited to see the turn action?

KUGR, yes you are a Donkey!

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Discuss

http://www.pokerhand.org/?576074

Was it a good lay down? My early indications from player say it it, but I want to open it up for discussion and I will try to defend my play the best I can.

Discuss!

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Booya!

I still suck...I still suck...I still suck. That about sums up my PSO League so far this year. I have failed to adapt to the players, and it has cost be dearly each week. I have two more kicks at the can but I am not holding my breathe. I started another League at Booya Poker compliments on Actyper and the first night was last night. It has a crazy amount of overlay, only 13 players showed up and the total prize at the end of the league is $5,000 split among the top 5 point getters. I managed to squeak into the cash in 4th, MathP finished 3rd and Actyper went out a few spots before me.

The structure of these events is terrible, it becomes a push fest after level 3 so there is not much play after the flop. I have a feeling there will be a few bad finishes thrown into the mix over the next 8 weeks. I'm going to try my hardest to get into the top 4 when the eight weeks are up so I can have a nice bonus for my time at this little site with stupid software.

On the bankroll front...I am moving up steadily and I feel fine playing NL200 and see it as my future home. I have surpassed $15,000 in cash winnings in online poker, I'll have to look back and see when I crossed the 5k and 10k marks to see the accelerated growth you get with proper bankroll management. My usable roll is only 5.3k but it is more than enough to play NL200 Full Ring as a TAG.

If I don't go to the bar tonight I should be able to get a few hands in as well as a CPT qualifier satellite at Booya Poker.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

The EV of Blogging

I believe that bloggers have a distinct advantage over non blogging poker players. I could be way off by saying this but I am going to try to quantify my reasoning and showing that blogging is +EV.

Firstly, blogging leads to typing out your thoughts on a session, therefore you are reviewing your play as you type hands in your blog and ask for advice. This leads to other bloggers who comment on the way you played the hands and most of the time leads to even more discussion on particular trouble hands. Most players would think about a hand and not have a sounding board to talk to, and would just assume there is no other way to play a hand. Blogging makes us see the light and try new things. I think reviewing hands with other bloggers and typing them out adds .3 BB/100 to our overall win rate.

Next, bloggers need something to talk/write about to stay "in" with the poker blogging community. If they stop playing they will not fit in and have zero material for there blog, leading to extinction. Peer pressure allows bloggers to be motivated to play more hands to keep up with other bloggers . An average player has no one to vent to, no one to pick them up while they are down, no one yelling at them when they don't post. Peer pressure enables all of us to play more and subsequently win more in the long run. I know without this blog I would play even less because poker wouldn't be top of mind. Peer pressure adds 200 more hands per week on average for myself.

All this blogging and chatting does take many players off their game, and takes us away from the tables to actually type a post or read the 20 blogs that are in our blogroll. This has both positive and negative aspects to our hands played and our win rate. It causes our hands played to go down, but win rate to go up. Our win rate goes up because we are reading the thoughts of other solid poker players and its easier for us to learn strategy, put villain's on hands. I for one absorb every blog I read and it helps when there is a tough decision, I can sometimes get into the mind of the villain and figure out what they are thinking because of reading blogs. This increase's our win rate by .4 BB/100 but decreases our hands per week by 50.

So what's all this mean. To a part time player playing a 1000 hands per week on average, we would add 150 hands and .7 BB/100 on all hands played. This gives us a theoretical value of $418.60. Who says that we don't get paid to blog!!

Is there anything I missed that would increase/decrease our EV of blogging??

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

A couple hands

Can you take a look at the first hand and tell me what I could of done differently? I think it was just a cooler because I have been running well lately. I needed the second hand to actually pull a profit out of the tables for the night.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?564077

http://www.pokerhand.org/?563963 Worst play I have ever witnessed. But it made me laugh!

I deposited to Party for their reload bonus last night, and has it ever changed. The fish have dried up for the most part, other than the one guy above who was screwing around. Four of my tables broke within 20 minutes of sitting down, that never happened at the old Party that we knew and loved. I also hate the jackpot tables, its the reason why I played NL100 and not NL200, where all the available full ring tables are Jackpot tables so Party can milk us for all we are worth.

I have a good idea for my next post, it should make all the bloggers feel good about what they do.

Friday, October 13, 2006

Strategy Post

Well it's been a while since I have posted anything of substance on this here blog. I am still running well at NL200, and think I can keep up with the big boys. I did notice last night was a little bit crazier than other nights on party, the players to the flop were higher, more betting, more desperation. It seemed everyone
was trying to make there last buck and forcing the issue, especially
the Americans. I played my patient game, made some resteals, lots of CB's, and some reraises with junk to keep them honest and everything was working.

The following is a play I use quite regularly in Cash games at NL50 and above, the higher the better. I'm sure many people use it but I am still going to write about the advantages of making this play and if you haven't thought about it, it will add
another arrow to your sling.

You get dealt QQ in MP at a full ring game and you bump it up to $4 at a .50/1.00 NL table. You get one caller who has position on you and just the two of you see the flop. This is a very common scenario that we see almost on a daily basis, out of position with a strong hand. The flop comes Q102 rainbow, so we hit top set and the action is on us. (this could easily be 1010 and middle set)

Our options:

Check: - we have a great hand with top set and we cannot be scared of anything at this point so we know we are ahead. KJs is a possible holding which would mean we could be venerable to draws but also not that likely and I wouldn't worry to much. Checking after a raise looks way too suspicious on a flop like this, it is pretty clear most preflop raisers would get a piece of this, and if not still take a chance at continuation betting anyway, and even if your opponent did as well they will most likely check behind and take a free card. This does not build a pot and we will not maximize value by checking.

Betting full pot: This doesn't make much sense to bet strongly when we have the
best of it. We want to build a pot but we don't want to scare the villain off who may of hit 2nd pair and put us on AK, this bet will look like AQ or better and we will give him no opportunity to float us.

Betting 1/2 Pot: - Since we have a lock hand at this point we want to price the AQ's, KQs, KJs, A10s, Q10s in the best we can and make them think they are ahead and being tricky when they call our bet that does look like weakness. This bet size makes it easy for them to float us as well, we want to look like a missed AK and that we are scared to lose anymore money so we make a small CB. At the higher levels this bet will often get raised right here but at the very least they will call with any piece of the flop putting us on AK and they will hopefully try to take us off the hand later. This seems the optimum bet to build a pot and give our villain options with a wider range of hands.

We bet 1/2 pot $5 and our continuation bet gets called. The turn is a 7 completing our rainbow. Q,10,2,7.

This is the part were things get interesting, we again have some options.

Bet: This will confirm to our opponent that we still like our hand and if they are drawing they would be folding, if they had 2nd pair they would fold, and if they were floating, we just confirmed we have a hand and their folding. Top pair would still probably call in this situation but that is only one of the many possible holdings that we want to extract money out of.

Check: You still have the best possible hand, and conventional wisdom says value bet, value bet, but at the higher levels you will fold out a lot of hands if you bet here
and you don't give the villain a chance to confirm his read of a missed AK, thus instilling confidence in them and causing them to make a "play" and fire back at your sensed weakness. They usually fire a 3/4 pot sized bet that we can decide what to do with later, or if they check behind you weren't going to get them to call a big bet anyway most of the times, so chalk it up to experience and take the small pot down on the river. If they fire a decent size bet we now have a pot worth playing for and you can either call and bet out on the river, or raise this bet usually getting them to fold unless they have a very strong hand in their eyes such as two pair. If they
have two pair they might even push and you can stack them. If they fold you won a few more BBs then if you bet into them.

The river doesn't mean much because you either stacked them, got them to fold on the reraise, or they checked behind and your gonna win a small pot. This isn't a play for those of you that want to protect your winning hands and enjoy value betting which works for the most part. This is a play when you want to stack someone or trying to extract maximum value for a hand. It works very well and I use it whenever the situation comes up. It can be used with many preflop hands/flops but you have to have the board nearly dominated and have only one opponent who like to pounce on weakness.

Good luck and when you get drawn out on do not blame me! :)

Thursday, October 12, 2006

AT>AT

Another League event done, another disappointing finish. I played a great tournament last night, making steals, making some nice lay downs, and playing tight solid poker. I had an above average stack with 35 players left when I tried to steal the BB for the SB when it was folded to me and raised with A10, the BB reraised, and I pushed thinking he was just trying to play back at me since I was chipping up by raising lots of pots previously. He called my push and had me covered and flipped over A10 and he hit a four flush and I was gone. He went to instant chip leader and had a few more suck outs before getting eliminated around the FT bubble I think. I was too mad about the result as I was happy with the way I played and the reads I made throughout the entire tournament. I should get some average luck soon and make a run at a final table.

I made my sidebar include the links to my Google spreadsheet of my results so all you can see my donkiness. Make sure you click on the bottom of the spreadsheet to visit the other "sheets" to see my bankroll, month-by-month stats, NL200 Challenge, and tournament results. I prematurely started my NL200 challenge last night, I had some extra time before the tournament started so I fired up one table of NL200 full ring. I find the players a mix between good and bad, and a little more aggressive than NL100. I was still able to punish callers who were drawing by firing 3 barrels at them, after I would miss the flop. I had someone call me down with K2 when we both hit trip Kings (I had a limped AKo from the SB) on the turn, for a $300 Pot. I find that players at this level play a bit trickier on average which force me to make a few plays I wouldn't at NL100 but with success so far after only one hour :) I plan to add a second table tonight and hopefully reach my goal of $5000 that I set to start the challenge, either way I will continue to solely play NL200 from here on out. I made my goal $2,000 before the end of the year. This will keep me playing as much as possible and keep me from slacking off and finding other things to do with my time.

I have had no comments on the spreadsheets so far, I know I only get a couple readers a day but come on!! Do you like or should I take it down??

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Results

I'm not looking to start a revolution but I just might have an idea that brings reporting wins/losses and updates on goals into the 21st century. I have created a spreadsheet that tracks my sessions from August 1st, 2006 on. It shows my cash game results with bonuses accounted for separately starting in October. I did not add the bonuses I received to my results from August and I do not plan to at this point. I have been keeping track of my hours played for my own use but I don't mind other bloggers keeping tabs on me to keep me focused and motivated. I will eventually expand my sheets to accommodate my goals, bankroll, casino whoring, tournaments, and any other ways I make money online going forward. I wish I started keeping track much earlier so that less experienced players could see where to bonus whore and the variance in online poker.

Please leave me suggestions on a better layout, what you would like to see more detail of or less of. I will do my best to update it as often as I can, but as you can see I don't play as much as I used to. I took about 40 days off if Sept/Oct. so that is the reason why September is missing off the bottom row of sheets available to view. Click on October to see how this month is going, I'm only 2 days in to October (yesterday and the day before) but I plan on playing more this month.

Note: You will need a google account to sign in to view the spreadsheet, if your a blogger you should be good to go!

CLICK HERE

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Wake Up!!

I'm sure most of my Canadian readers are still asleep from eating turkey non stop this weekend but I should post for my American readers and my one reader from across the pond. I finally got to my Party relaod bonus which forced me to play 5 hours of poker this weekend to finish it off before they took it away last night at midnight. I played some mindless four tabling of NL50 and managed to grind a decent profit of $125 not including the $100 bonus. I had quite a bit of variance along the way but managed to play solid poker through out the entire time. So after taking a month off, I STILL GOT IT! I'm going to restart my hourly commitment per week to poker. I think I set it at 5 hours last time so I will stick with that since its the most I see myself playing over the foreseeable future.

After my recent cashout of 7.5k, my bankroll sits around $4,700 and is more than manageble for 4 tabling NL100. I will challenge myself this time, when I hit $5,000 I am going to make the jump to NL200 permanatly. I know i've said it before but I am actually going to stick with this unless I lose more than 5 buy ins. The way I am going to set this up for my tracking purposes is to place the $1,000 bankroll on Party and keep it separate for the purposes of playing NL200. I will use a separate site/account to play any other limits if I am not feeling up to it or feel like bonus whoring. I am not going to track my hours played but will use PokerTracker to keep track of my winrate and total number of hands played periodically.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Birthday Boy

Well I got back on the horse last night and played a few hands while I was sorting out my trip to go see Michigan vs. Michigan State play college football. I only fired up two tables of NL100 since I wasn't really concentrating too much. I was able to make a quick profit of $45 in about 25 mins or 45 hands and then had to get some sleep for work. I feel old just typing that and it doesn't help that today is my birthday, the big 26! I have a night out on the town planned for today then the football game Saturday, turkey Sunday with the fiancé, and plans with my family on Monday. I will also have to fit in about 750 hands of poker in at some point to finish off the Party reload bonus.

With all the affiliates located in the states getting shut down it makes me believe that this law is actually going to stick. It makes me feel bad for all those students that quit university to go to poker college, or the few lawyers that quit to pursue poker full time. I'm sure plan B will come into effect soon for these players but I hope going forward even if this law doesn't prevent the U.S. from playing poker that students learned their lesson about how important education is. The clichés actually apply here; We should never put all our eggs in one basket or bet the farm on one hand.

The first installment of the PSO league didn't go so hot, I was the 4th one out I think.

My bust hand:

Blinds 10/20

Hero: 22 (T1600)

Limped 4 way pot

Flop: 2s7sKx

EP bets 80

MP raises to 160

Hero Raises to 360

EP folds

MP calls

Turn: 9s

MP checks

Hero bets 500 into a 800ish pot

MP pushes (made his flush draw!!!)

It costs me 600 to call a pot of 2400 not including my 600, I type I have outs and click call and gamble to build a stack. I had about a 20% chance on the river.

River Blank = not good!

Well have a drink tonight for my birthday!!

Monday, October 02, 2006

U.S. of fucking A

http://www.partygaming.com/images/docs/061001_USLegislation2.pdf

As I am sure most of you heard that the U.S. of fucking A has passed a bill that essentially prohibits online gambling by U.S. based players. This has a ridiculous amounts of repercussions to all poker players and not just U.S. players. Foreign players lose party rakeback, the throngs numbers of players that keep the games going, and the fish that makes my part time playing worthwhile. I have a few friends, and one or two readers from the U.S. and I feel for them right now. PSO also thrives on the business of Americans and they will be hurt by this, it was fun while it lasted though.

I, as a trusting Canadian, have a Plan!!! I have access to a few Canadian based Party accounts and if I know you I will make arrangements to give you access to them so you can continue your degenerate habits.
Also, if you know any pro's that need accounts let me know ;) I'm sure I could work something out.

It's still early so I'm sure we will have more direction in the next few weeks on how this will affect the poker world